Geographic profiling: an examination of the predictive potential of serial armed robberies
National Criminal Justice Modelling Workshop: 2003
Presenter: Peter Branca, BAE Systems, Victoria
Overview of presentation:
Early theories, in criminology and geography indicate that offenders often display discernible spatial patterns, which can be interpreted. A growing body of international research indicates that through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), crime patterns can be used to predict the likely home/base location of a serial offender. ‘Geographic profiling’ is a term often used to describe this form of analysis.
The purpose of this research is to explore the predictive potential of Geographic Profiling in relation to serial armed robbery. The research data, which was obtained from the Victorian Police, consisted of 240 armed robbery offences, involving over 24 serial offenders. Utilising MapInfo software, Journey to Crime (JTC) and Centrography prediction techniques were used to predict the home location of the serial offenders.
The research results supported the premise that it is possible to reduce the area a serial offender is likely to live. The conclusion is that, with further work in this area, it would be possible to create an ‘expert system’, which could assist in the predictive analysis all types of serial offences, including, as burglary, rape, arson and homicide and even terrorist events.
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