An epidemic model of delinquency
National Criminal Justice Modelling Workshop: 2003
Presenter: Bronwyn Lind, Deputy Director, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Attorney-General's Department
Overview of presentation:
Research evidence indicates that economic stress on families increases the likelihood that parents will neglect or abuse their children, and that such children will be more susceptible to peer influence. If their peers are involved in crime then they themselves are more likely to become involved in crime. This process appears similar to the epidemic process of disease transmission because susceptible juveniles become ‘infected’ on contact with other ‘infected’ juveniles. The presentation describes an epidemic model for offender population growth adapted from the epidemic model for disease transmission. Features of the model are explored, both from examination of the model equations and from some illustrative simulations.
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